Select your language

Copper Market Forecasts 2021/2022

Pronósticos del mercado del cobre 2021/2022

International. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) met to discuss key issues affecting the global copper market. At the meeting of the Statistical Committee, the ICSG's vision of the global balance of refined copper production and use was developed.

After three years of remaining essentially unchanged, global production of copper mines, adjusted for historical disruption factors, is expected to increase by approximately 2.1% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022:
* Growth for 2021 has been revised downwards to 2.1% from the 3.5% forecast in the Group's estimate for April 2021.
* Despite the increase in new capacity, global mining production in 2021 is constrained by a slower-than-expected recovery in Peruvian production, the reduction of SX-EW production in Chile, the temporary closure of SX-EW mines in Myanmar, as well as operational problems in some mines.
* Production in 2022 is expected to increase by 3.9% as it continues to recover to pre-pandemic levels in several countries, especially in Peru. It will also be supported by the commissioning of the mines and extensions recently put into service, as well as the planned start-up of some major projects.
* After a four-year period in which only two major copper mines were put into service, the portfolio of copper mine projects is improving. Major projects starting in 2021/2022 include Kamoa Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Quellaveco in Peru, Spence-SGO and Quebrada Blanca QB2 in Chile and Udokan in Russia. A number of medium and small projects are also planned.
* Most projects are producing concentrates, which should result in sustained growth in global concentrate production. SX-EW production is expected to recover in 2022 from this year's constraints and growth should be supported by expansions and new projects in the D.R. Congo

- After increasing by 2% in 2020, global refined copper production is expected to increase by approximately 1.7% in 2021 and by 3.9% in 2022:

- Publicidad -

* 2021 growth has been revised down from 3% to 2% mainly due to reduced SX-EW production in Chile and Myanmar, operational issues in Japan, Australia and Russia, power rationing in China and some unexpected maintenance.
Nonetheless, a decline of around 0.5% in global refined production outside China is expected to be more than offset by growth of around 5% in China.
* After two consecutive years of decline, global secondary refined production (from scrap) is expected to grow by 6.5%, supported by the end of China's scrap import quotas and the continuous improvement of scrap availability globally.
* Global production of primary refined (concentrates and SX-EW) is forecast to increase by a moderate 0.8% in 2021, as a 5% decrease in SX-EW production will partially offset the 2% growth in primary electrolytic refined (concentrate) production.
* In 2022, higher concentrate availability, a recovery in SX-EW production, and a further increase in secondary refined production are expected to result in an overall increase in global refined production of 4%.

Apparent global use of refined copper is expected to remain essentially unchanged in 2021 and grow by about 2.4% in 2022:

* The global lockdown in 2020 led to a temporary reduction in the use of refined copper, particularly outside of China. However, sustained growth in copper demand is expected to resume, as copper is essential for economic activity and modern technological society. In addition, infrastructure developments in major countries and the global trend towards cleaner energy and electric cars will continue to support long-term copper demand.
Global use of refined copper outside China declined by 9.5% in 2020, but is expected to recover by 6.5% in 2021, mainly due to an overall improvement in global economic conditions and manufacturing activity.
By contrast, Chinese apparent use increased considerably in 2020 due to a notable increase in refined copper imports and is forecast to fall by 5% this year, as the amount of imported refined copper is likely to be significantly lower. According to estimates by several consultants, the actual use of China may grow by 3%.
By 2022, an expected continued recovery in the global economy will benefit the copper end-use sectors and should help sustain global growth of around 2.5%.

- Global refined copper balance projections indicate a balanced market for 2021 and a surplus of around 328,000t by 2022:

* The ICSG recognizes that global market balances may vary from those projected due to numerous factors that could alter projections for both production and use. In this context, it can be observed that the actual results of the market equilibrium have deviated on recent occasions from the ICSG market equilibrium forecasts due to unforeseen events.
* In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not take into account changes in undeclared stocks (State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, trader/trader, consolidated) that can be significant during periods of storage or shortages and that can significantly alter global supply and demand balances. The apparent demand for copper for China is based solely on the reported data (production + net trade +/- changes in SHFE stocks).
ICSG expects a somewhat balanced market for 2021 and continues to forecast a surplus for 2022.

Duván Chaverra Agudelo
Duván Chaverra AgudeloEmail: [email protected]
Jefe Editorial de las revistas AVI Latinoamérica, ACR Latinoamérica, Ventas de Seguridad, Zona de Pinturas, Aftermarket Internation, Gerencia de Edificios, TV y Video, y Director Académico en Latin Press, Inc,.
Comunicador Social y Periodista con experiencia de más de 18 años en medios de comunicación. Apasionado por la tecnología y por esta industria.

4 comments

• If you're already registered, please log in first. Your email will not be published.

Leave your comment

In reply to Some User
Mirage and Conalep Navojoa promote the training of refrigeration and air conditioning technicians

Mirage and Conalep Navojoa promote the training of refrigeration and air conditioning technicians

Mexico. Mirage announced a strategic alliance with the Plantel Conalep Sonora Navojoa to strengthen the training of new technicians in the sector.

New commitment to thermoacoustics for more efficient heat pumps

New commitment to thermoacoustics for more efficient heat pumps

United States. Copeland has invested in BlueHeart Energy, a Dutch startup developing thermoacoustic technology for more efficient and sustainable heat pumps.

Reliable Controls Appoints Sean Roukey as Business Development Executive

Reliable Controls Appoints Sean Roukey as Business Development Executive

International. Reliable Controls has appointed Sean Roukey as its new Business Development Executive for the Northeast United States.

KNX LATAM revolutionizes automation in Latin America with the Virtual Building Automation Days

KNX LATAM revolutionizes automation in Latin America with the Virtual Building Automation Days

Chile. Next Thursday, April 10th, KNX Latin America will hold the Virtual Building Automation Days, registration is free of charge.

GreenYellow and La Fazenda inaugurate a sustainable refrigeration system

GreenYellow and La Fazenda inaugurate a sustainable refrigeration system

Colombia. A new energy-efficient refrigeration system was installed at the La Fazenda refrigeration plant in Puerto Gaitán, Meta.

Officine Mario Dorin announces ambitious expansion plan at its Florence headquarters

Officine Mario Dorin announces ambitious expansion plan at its Florence headquarters

International. Officine Mario Dorin, a refrigeration company, has announced a major expansion plan at its headquarters in Florence, Italy.

Copeland expands its presence in Latin America with a new office in Chile

Copeland expands its presence in Latin America with a new office in Chile

Chile. As part of its regional growth strategy, Copeland has opened a new office in Santiago, Chile, strengthening its presence in the HVACR market.

Environment and UNDP recognize ten women for their contribution to the protection of the ozone layer

Environment and UNDP recognize ten women for their contribution to the protection of the ozone layer

Dominican Republic. Within the framework of International Women's Day, the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) highlighted the work of ten...

Register for the Building Automation Webinar: Keys to Understanding Modbus and BACnet

Register for the Building Automation Webinar: Keys to Understanding Modbus and BACnet

International.  On March 27, 2025, ACR Latin America will offer a webinar focused on building automation protocols, with an emphasis on understanding Modbus and BACnet.

Scientists develop the first elastocaloric air conditioner on a commercial scale

Scientists develop the first elastocaloric air conditioner on a commercial scale

International. Researchers at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) have developed the first elastocaloric air conditioning system with cooling capacity on a commercial scale.

Free Subscription
Remember Me
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER
DO YOU NEED A SERVICE OR PRODUCT QUOTE?
LASTEST INTERVIEWS
SITE SPONSORS










LASTEST NEWSLETTER
Ultimo Info-Boletin