International. To all the environmental and economic effects foreseen as a result of climate change, the impact that global warming has on the human body is added, which would cause the loss of 80 million jobs in 2030.
A new study by the World Labour Organization (ILO) released on Monday warns that climate change will increase heat stress, that is, the heat load that is received and accumulated in the human body as a result of environmental conditions.
This type of stress is related to the heat that the body can withstand without suffering physiological degradation, usually produced at temperatures above 35°C, in conditions of high humidity. Excess heat in the workplace constitutes a risk to health at work, restricting the functions and physical abilities of workers and their ability to work, and consequently, productivity will decrease. In extreme cases it can cause heat stroke, which could be fatal.
According to the ILO, the increase in thermal stress at work caused by climate change will have an adverse impact on productivity and lead to economic and employment losses, affecting the poorest countries to a greater extent.
The report projects a global total of 80 million jobs lost by 2030 due to declining productivity due to heat stress.
The estimate is based on a global temperature increase of 1.5°C by the end of this century. It is expected that by 2030 2.2% of the world's working hours will be lost as a result of rising temperatures, equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs. This will lead to economic losses of $2.4 trillion.
The most affected sectors
Despite the magnitude of these figures, the ILO points out that this calculation is conservative since it assumes that the average increase in temperature will not exceed 1.5°C, provided for in the Paris Agreement, in addition to assuming that work in agriculture and construction, two of the sectors most affected by thermal stress, is carried out in places in the shade.
The agricultural sector, which would be the most affected, has 940 million workers in the world. It is expected that by 2030, 60% of the working hours lost due to thermal stress will correspond to this item.
The construction industry will also be severely affected, with 19% of working hours lost for the same year. Other sectors at risk are environmental goods and services, garbage collection, emergencies, repair work, transport, tourism and sports, as well as certain forms of industrial work.
The effects will take place unevenly in the world. The regions where the most working hours will be lost will be South Asia and West Africa, where there will be a loss of about 5% of working hours by 2030, i.e. 43 million and 9 million jobs respectively.
The inhabitants of the poorest regions will suffer the greatest economic losses. Lower-middle- or low-income countries will be the hardest hit by having fewer resources to adapt effectively to rising heat. Consequently, the economic losses caused by heat stress will widen the current economic disparity, in particular the rate of working poor, informal and vulnerable employment, subsistence agriculture and the lack of social protection.
Migration
Heat stress will affect millions of women, who make up the majority of workers in subsistence agriculture, and men, who make up the majority of workers in the construction sector. Heat stress can also lead to increased migration, as workers leave rural areas in search of a better future.
The challenges posed by climate change are a central theme of the ILO's new Centenary Declaration on the Future of Work, and will determine its programme of work and research. The report highlights the far-reaching consequences of these challenges with respect to the UN 2030 Agenda. In particular, it notes that "the effects of heat stress at the economic, social and health levels could hinder the fight against poverty and the promotion of human development and, consequently, the achievement of most of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)".
The Director of the ILO's Research Department, Catherine Saget, said that, in addition to the enormous economic costs of heat stress, "we can expect an increase in the disparity between low-income and higher-income countries. worsening working conditions for the most vulnerable, and population displacement. In order to adapt to this new reality, governments, employers and workers must take urgent measures that emphasize the protection of the most vulnerable."
Policies to mitigate heat stress
The ILO advocates the formulation, financing and implementation of national policies to mitigate the risks of heat stress and protect workers.
To address thermal phenomena, the study highlights the promotion of adequate infrastructure and the development of early warning systems, as well as the improvement of the implementation of international labour standards, in particular in the field of occupational safety and health, to promote the formulation of policies to address the dangers caused by heat.
Employers and workers can play an appropriate role in assessing risks and taking appropriate measures in the workplace to enable workers to continue to work easily in situations of high temperatures.
Employers should provide safe drinking water and offer training programmes in heat stress recognition and management. Social dialogue can be a primary means of reaching consensus on the most appropriate working methods in indoor or outdoor environments, the adaptation of working hours, the use of clothing and equipment, the use of new technologies, the establishment of places located in shady areas and the realization of breaks at work.
The ILO's new report, Working on a warmer planet: The impact of heat stress on labour productivity and decent work, is based on climate data, it provides current and projected estimates of productivity losses at the national, regional and global levels.
Source: United Nations.
