WMO Press Release
Cancun/Geneva (WMO) – The year 2010 will almost certainly enter the ranking in the 3 hottest years since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization. The combined global sea area and land surface air temperature for 2010 (January-October) is currently estimated at 0.55 °C ± 0.11 °C1 (± 0.99 °F0.20 °F) above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00 °C/57.2 °C. At present, 2,010 of nominal value is the highest in history, just ahead of 1998 (January-October anomaly of 0.53 º C) and 2005 (0.52 ° C) 2. The ERA-Interim3 re-analysis data also indicates that from January to October 2010 temperatures are close to record levels. The final ranking for 2010 will not be clear until the November and December data are analyzed in early 2011. Preliminary operating data 1-25 November indicate that global temperatures since November 2010 are similar to those observed in November 2005, indicating that global temperatures for 2010 are on track near record levels.
During the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, 0.03°C above the 2000-09 average and the highest value ever recorded for a period of 10 years. Recent warming has been especially strong in Africa, parts of Asia, and parts of the Arctic, Sub-Saharan/Arabia, East Africa, Central Asia, and Greenland/sub-Arctic between Canada and the regions have had temperatures above 2001-10°C 1.2 to 1.4 the long-term average, and 0.7°C to 0.9°C warmer than any previous decade.
The surface temperature of the air above the earth was above normal in most of the world. The most extreme warm anomalies occurred in two large regions.
The former is widespread in most of Canada and Greenland, with an average annual temperature of 3°C or higher than normal in parts of western Greenland and the Canadian and sub-Arctic eastern Arctic. The second object more than half north of Africa and south Asia, extending east to the western half of China, with an annual temperature of 1°C to 3 earlier than normal in most of the region. Many parts of both regions had their hottest year on record, including a large part of North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and southwest Asia (Turkey and Tunisia, which have their hottest year on record), as well as much of Canada's Arctic and the Greenland coast. Four of the five sub-Regions4 that are wholly or partially in Africa (West and South Africa, the Sahara or the Arab region and the Mediterranean) are on course for their hottest year on record, along with South and Central Asia, and Greenland/Arctic Canada. Average temperatures during Canada have also been the highest in history.
Only limited areas of land had below-normal temperatures in 2010, the most notable parts being western and central Siberia in Russia, parts of southern South America, interior Australia, parts of northern and western Europe, eastern China and the southeastern United States. It was the coldest year since 1996 for the northern European region, and since 1998 in northern Asia, mainly due to below-normal temperatures during the winter. A number of northern European countries are also likely to have their coldest year since 1996, including the UK, Germany, France and Norway.
Sea surface temperatures were below normal in most of the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean as a result of the La Niña event that unfolded during the year, but well above normal in most of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The tropical North Atlantic was especially warm, with temperatures at unprecedented levels in most of the area east of the 55°W meridian.
Major regional climate events in 2010
Extreme Asia summer monsoon in some regions
Pakistan suffered the worst floods in its history as a result of exceptionally heavy monsoon rains. The main event responsible for the flooding occurred from July 26 to 29, when four-day rainfall totals exceeded 300 millimeters in a large area of northern Pakistan, centered in Peshawar. There was an increase in torrential rains further south, 2-8 August, which reinforced flooding. More than 1500 people lost their lives, and more than 20 million people were displaced as much of Pakistan's agricultural land was flooded. As for the number of people affected, the United Nations called the flood the largest humanitarian crisis in recent history. Pakistan's total monsoon rainy season was the fourth highest in history, and the highest since 1994.
Summer rains were also well above normal in western India, and China experienced its most significant monsoon flooding since 1998, with south-eastern China and parts of the northeast more affected. Flooding from the latter also spread to the Korean peninsula. Some of these floods led to a significant loss of life, both directly and through landslides in China, which claimed more than 1,400 lives in Gansu province.
However, the monsoon rains season averaged more than India was only 2% higher than normal, and was well below normal in northeastern India and Bangladesh, which had its driest monsoon season since 1994.
Extreme summer heat waves in Russia and other regions
The Northern Hemisphere summer saw exceptional heat waves in various parts of Eurasia. The most extreme heat was focused in western Russia, with the peak extending from early July to mid-August, although temperatures were well above normal from May. In Moscow, July average temperatures were 7.6°C above normal, making the city's hottest month on record for more than 2°C, and similar anomalies continued to cooler conditions developed in the last 10 days of the month of August. A new city record temperature of 38.2°C was set on July 29, and reached 30°C or higher on 33 consecutive days (by comparison, there was no day in everything above 30°C in the summer of 2009). About 11,000 excess deaths during the summer were attributed to extreme heat in Moscow alone5. Some parts of central European Russia had average temperatures of more than 5°C above normal for the summer. The heat was accompanied by destructive forest fires, while severe drought, especially in the Volga region, resulted in poor harvests.
Neighbouring countries were also affected, with extreme high maximum temperatures recorded in Finland, Ukraine and Belarus, and recording a high number of extreme warm nights in some parts of southern Europe, including Serbia.
It was also a very hot summer in many other parts of Eurasia and North Africa. The eastern tip of Russia had temperatures well above normal, which combined with extreme heat in the west to result in the warmest summer on record an average of more than Russia as a whole. Japan and China also had their hottest summers on record. Earlier in the year, there was exceptional pre-monsoon heat in South Asia, including a temperature of 53.5°C at Mohenjodaro on May 26, a national record from Pakistan, and the highest temperature in Asia since at least 1942. Extreme heat affected North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, sometimes during the summer, with readings among them were 52.0°C in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia), 50.4°C in Doha (Qatar) and 47.7°C in Taroudant (Morocco).
An abnormal winter in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere
Normal flow from the western mid-latitudes was unusually weak during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2009-10, which resulted in many major weather anomalies in various parts of the hemisphere. In particular, it was a colder winter in most of Europe (with the exception of the Mediterranean region), the Asian part of Russia (except for the Far East) and Mongolia. The winter peak temperature anomalies (below -4°C) were in central Russia, but in a historical context the most unusual conditions were found on the western periphery of Europe, with Ireland and Scotland both experiencing their coldest winter from 1962 to 1963. Many other parts of northern and central Europe had their coldest winter from 1978-79, 1986-87 and 1995-96, although temperatures were generally not exceptional in a long-term historical context. The lack of normal winter from the west also resulted in drought conditions in coastal areas normally of high rainfall, with western Norway having its driest winter on record (72% below normal). While strong westerly winds were infrequent for most of the winter, a severe winter storm (Xynthia) crossed northwestern Europe in late February, causing widespread damage and storm surge wind, especially in France, where wind speed exceeded 150 km/h on the west coast. Further south in Europe, it was a very wet winter, with rainfall widely 100% or more above normal in Spain, Portugal, Italy and southern Europe.
North Africa recorded hot conditions during the winter. Temperatures February an average of 3.7 °C above the long-term average over the Sahara or Arab region, the largest anomaly on record for any month. In late February it reached temperatures between 30 and 36 °C in northern Algeria, the highest in February since 1980. Winter temperatures are also well above normal in Turkey and the Middle East.
In the United States, the normal north-south temperature gradient was much weaker than normal. Canada had its warmest winter on record, with domestic temperatures of 4.0°C above the long-term average, winter temperatures were 6°C or higher than normal in parts of the north of the country. (It also went on to have its warmest spring on record, with temperatures of 4.1°C above the long-term average.) Warm conditions further east in the Arctic to cover Greenland and Spitsbergen. Canada also had its driest winter on record, with dry conditions, especially abnormal in British Columbia (which combined with unusually high temperatures to cause the poor snow conditions for some events at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver). In contrast, most of the continental United States (except for the far northwest and northeast) was colder than normal. For the United States as a whole it was the coldest winter from 1984 to 1985, and most areas south to east Texas had one of its 10 coldest winters on record. These cold conditions were accompanied by unusually extensive snow cover, and very heavy seasonal amounts of snowfall in some eastern cities, with a season record total in Washington DC.
Heavy rains and floods
Large parts of Indonesia and Australia experienced heavy rainfall in 2010 as a developed La Niña episode, with particular unusual rainfall starting in May (usually the driest time of the year). In Indonesia, at least twice the normal monthly rainfall fell in each of the months from June to October in most of Java, the islands east of Java and south of Sulawesi. The May-October period was the wettest on record for northern Australia with rainfall 152% above normal, while above-normal rainfall further south contributed to long-term drought relief in parts of the southeast.
Spring was especially wet, with an average of more Than Australia being rainiest in history.
While seasonal rains were not as persistently above normal north even further north in Southeast Asia, Thailand and Vietnam have experienced major flooding in October, with significant loss of life and economic damage.
Many other parts of the world were affected by major floods during 2010. An active summer monsoon rainy season in the Sahel of West Africa was accompanied by flooding from time to time, with Benin and Niger, the most severely affected countries. In Benin, this caused the worst floods on record in terms of impact, causing serious losses to the agricultural sector and severe disruptions to public services, including access to cut-off health centres, although the amounts of rainfall were mostly not unprecedented.
In Central Europe there were major floods in May, especially in eastern Germany, Poland and Slovakia, at the end of June floods occurred in Romania, Ukraine and Moldova, and later Germany had its rainiest August in history. Bursa (Turkey) had its wettest January-October on record (1152 mm, 132% above normal), while the average rainfall over Romania for the January-October period was 34% above normal, and the northern Bohemian region (Czech Republic), had its wettest year since 1981.
In South America, Colombia had its most severe flooding in more than 30 years in November. More localized flooding caused severe damage and loss of life in many other places, including Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (April), Madeira (February), Arkansas, the United States (June) and southern France (June).
Drought in the Amazon and elsewhere
Parts of the Amazon basin were seriously affected by drought during the latter part of 2010. An unusually dry July-September period in northwestern Brazil as a result of drastically reduced flow in many parts of the Amazon basin with the Rio Negro, a major tributary of the Amazon, falling to its lowest level in history. At the beginning of the year, Guyana and the eastern Caribbean islands were heavily affected by drought, with rainfall for the period october 2009-March 2010 widely in the driest 10% of years on record.
In Asia, parts of southwestern China experienced severe drought until late 2009 and early 2010. Yunnan and Guizhou provinces, the lower rainfall was recorded during the period from September 2009 to mid-March 2010 with totals widely 30% to 80% below normal. Dry conditions were also accompanied by above-normal temperatures and numerous wildfires. Conditions there relieved with some good rains during the summer.
Pakistan also experienced drought in the first months of 2010 before the onset of the monsoon. Summer rains also eliminate the development of drought conditions in some parts of Western Europe, where the United Kingdom had its driest season from January to June 1929.
Some other parts of South Asia, including northeastern India, Bangladesh, and parts of Thailand and Vietnam, were relatively dry during the main monsoon season, although Thailand and Vietnam were affected by flooding next in October. Although widespread above-normal rainfall eased long-term drought in many parts of Australia, the southwest was a notable exception, with January-October 2010 being the driest region in history.
El Niño, La Niña and other major drivers of large-scale climate
2010 began with a well-established El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean.
This was quickly broken in the first months of the year. A rapid transition took place and La Niña conditions were in place in August. To some extent the la Niña phenomenon ongoing in late 2010 is the strongest since at least the mid-1970s. The response from the atmosphere has been especially strong, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), reaching its highest monthly value since 1973 in September. The el Niño to La Niña transition phenomenon is similar to what happened in 1998, another very hot year, although in 2010 the El Niño phenomenon was weaker and the strong La Niña, than in the case in 1998.
The tropical Eastern Indian Ocean was also significantly warmer than normal during the second half of 2010 (Negative Indian Ocean dipole), in contrast to the previous La Niña episode in 2007-08 when it went overall colder than normal. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO) were in a negative phase for most of the year, exceptionally so in the winter 2009/10 in the northern hemisphere, which in most indicators had the AO season with more negative force and the NAO in the file. The Antarctic Oscillation
(AAO) (also known as southern Annular Mode (SAM)) was in positive mode for most of the year, reaching its highest monthly values since 1989 in July and August.
Tropical cyclone activity well below normal, except in the North Atlantic
Global tropical cyclone activity was well below normal in 2010, except in the North Atlantic. A total of 65 tropical cyclones have been observed so far in 2010, of which 35 have reached hurricanes and typhoon intensity as of November 30. These are both well below the long-term averages of 85 and 44, respectively. The final total for the year is likely to be the lowest since at least 1979.
Tropical cyclone activity is especially scarce in the northern Pacific Ocean. Only 7 cyclones occurred in the northeast Pacific and 14 in the Pacific Northwest (long-term averages 17 and 26, respectively). Both the Northeast and Pacific Northwest were the lowest totals on record from January to November. In contrast, the North Atlantic had a very active season with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes, which is equally the second highest behind the record of 15 set in 2005 (long-term averages 10 and 5 respectively).
The strongest tropical cyclone of the year was Super Typhoon Megi, which crossed the northern Philippines in October after reaching a central minimum pressure of 885 hPa, making it the strongest tropical cyclone in the world since 2005 and the strongest in the Pacific Northwest since 1984. Megi caused extensive damage to infrastructure and agriculture in the northern Philippines, Taiwan and Fujian province in China, but only limited casualties. Tomás (North Atlantic, November) reached category 2 intensity, but its associated rains contributed to the spread of a cholera epidemic in Haiti.
Polar Regions: third lowest Arctic summer of the sea of minimum ice in the file
Arctic, sea ice extent was again well below normal in 2010.La minimum arctic sea ice extent was reached on September 19 with an area of 4.60 million square kilometers, the third lowest seasonal minimum in satellite records from 2007 and 2008, and more than 2 million square kilometers below the long-term average. The fall of 2010 freeze has also been abnormally slow, with ice cover until November 28 being the lowest on record for this time of year. The Canadian sector had its smallest extent of summer ice in history. The low ice sheet supported temperatures well above normal in most of the Arctic, with numerous seasons in Greenland, as well as Greenland or the Arctic region of Canada as a whole, having their hottest year on record with average annual temperatures 3-4°C above normal.
By contrast, Antarctic sea ice extent overall slightly above normal in 2010, with the lowest monthly average of 3,160,000 square kilometers in February, 0.22 million square kilometers above the long-term average. Average temperatures in the Antarctic region were also slightly above normal.
Background to the data used in this statement
This preliminary information for 2010 is based on climate data from terrestrial climate networks and weather stations, ships and buoys, as well as satellites. The data is continuously collected and disseminated by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of the 189 Members of the WMO and the collaboration of several research institutions. The data continuously feeds three main repository of global climate data and analysis centers, which develop and maintain homogeneous global climate databases based on peer-reviewed methodologies. WMO's analysis of global temperature is therefore mainly on the basis of three complementary datasets. One of them is the combined dataset from the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre and the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK.
Another dataset is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the third is from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Preliminary November 2010 information is extracted from ERA-provisional data based on adjustment re-analysis managed by the European Centre for the Weather Forecasting Medium (ECMWF). The content of the WMO Declaration is verified and reviewed by leading experts from other international, regional and national climate institutions and centres prior to its publication.
With press information from the UNFCCC.
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Authors: Santiago
