International. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) published preliminary data for global copper supply and demand in May in its August 2021 Copper Bulletin. The ICSG Bulletin and online statistical database provide data, by country, for copper mine, smelter, refining and semi-production, use, trade, stocks and prices of copper refining.
Preliminary data indicate that global production from copper mines increased by 4.8% during the first five months of 2021, with concentrate production increasing by around 6.5% and electrodeposition solvent extraction (SX-EW) reduction of 2%:
- Global mining production began to recover in June 2020 when lockdown measures were eased and the industry adapted to stricter health protocols. However, government-imposed restrictions related to COVID-19 and preventive measures implemented by the industry to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 continue to limit production in some countries this year.
Production in Chile, the world's largest copper mine producing country, fell by 2% in the first 5 months of this year, with 2% growth in concentrate production more than offset by a 13% decrease in SX-EW production.
Production in Peru, the world's second largest copper mine producing country, increased by 17% mainly because production from March to May increased by 35% from a limited base from March to May 2020 when the industry was severely affected by COVID-19 and emergency closures. However, january 2021 production is still 7% lower than january May 2019.
- Indonesian production increased by about 72% mainly due to the continuous increase in underground production at the Grasberg mine.
- Strong increases were also observed in the Dominican Republic and Panama due to additional production from new or expanded operations. Production in the United States remained essentially unchanged.
Preliminary data indicate that global refined copper production increased by approximately 4% during the first five months of 2021 with primary production (electrolytic and electrodeposition) increasing by 4.3% and secondary (scrap) production by 2%:
- China's official preliminary refined production data indicate growth of 7.5%.
Chile's total refined copper production (electrolytic and electrodeposition) decreased by 7%, as an increase of about 4% in electrolytic refining was more than offset by a 13% reduction in electrolytic refining production.
- In Africa, refined production increased by 14% in the Dominican Republic. Congo due to the continuous increase of new or expanded SX-EW plants, and by 25% in Zambia, where production recovered from smelter operational problems and temporary closures during 2019 and early 2020.
Refining production increased by 13% in the United States mainly due to a recovery from 2020 operational problems in smelters.
- Preliminary data indicate declines in Brazil, Japan, Russia, Spain (SX-EW) and Sweden for various reasons, including maintenance work, operational problems and the closure of SX-EW plants.
Globally, secondary refining production (from scrap) increased by 2%, with China being the largest contributor to growth.
Preliminary data indicate that apparent global use of refined copper increased by 4.5% during the first five months of 2021:
- The covid-19-related global lockdown has had a notable negative impact on the global economy and subsequently on key copper end-use sectors in all regions except China. Although usage began to recover in the second half of 2020, global demand remains below pre-pandemic levels in most countries.
Global use of refined copper outside of China is estimated to have declined by about 9% in 2020. Usage during the first five months of this year is estimated to be about 3.8% compared to the same period in 2020, but it's still 5% below that in the first five months of 2019.
- Apparent Chinese use (excluding changes in linked/undeclared stocks) increased by around 5%.
Copper prices and stocks
- Based on average estimates provided by two independent consultants, China's bond holdings are believed to have increased by about 50,000 t in the first five months of 2021 compared to the level at the end of 2020.
- At the end of July 2021, copper stocks held on major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 374,366 t, an increase of 123,191 t (+49%) over stocks held at the end of December 2020. Stocks increased in LME (+126%) and SHFE (+25%) and down in COMEX (-41%).
- The average spot price of the LME for July was US$9,433.59/t, down 1.9% from the June average of US$9,612.43/t. The maximum and minimum copper prices in 2021 until the end of July were US$10,724.50/t (on May 10) and US$7,755.50/t (on February 2), respectively, and the annual average was US$9,143.48/t (up 48%). the 2020 annual average).
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